Transportation energy outlook under conditions of persistently low petroleum prices. Transportation Research Record.

Mintz, Marianne Millar... [et al.].

[199?]

SEPARATA
48

In much the same way that rising oil prices in the 1970s profoundly influenced petroleum production and consumption, an era of persistently low prices will have far-reaching consequences for petroleum supply and demand. Many of those consequences are indirect and will not be widely understood for some time; others are more clear-cut. In this paper, some of the anticipated consequences will be explored, including revised estimates of domestic petroleum reserves, production, and consumption, as well as oil imports. The focus is on transportation, the largest consumer of petroleum products and the most petroleum-dependent sector of the U.S. economy, and the conclusion is that persistently low oil prices will result in a significant decline in domestic oil production, a modest increase in petroleum consumption overall and in transportation (primary due to reduced fuel efficiency in the vehicle fleet), and a substantial increase in our import dependence and vulneravility to supply interruptions and price shocks. Together, these effects increase the need for improved fuel efficiency and fuel flexibility, yet reduce the market incentive to develop and introduce new fuel-saving technologies.

Presenta tbls. y gráfs.

ESTADOS UNIDOS; PRECIOS DEL PETROLEO; CONSUMO DE PETROLEO; SECTOR TRANSPORTE; ESCENARIOS ENERGETICOS; CONSUMO DE COMBUSTIBLES;