Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook

Zittel, Werner
Schindler, Jörg

2008

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The main purpose of this paper is to project the future availability of crude oil up to 2030. Since crude oil is the most important energy carrier at a global scale and since all kinds of transport rely heavily on oil, the future availability of crude oil is of paramount interest. At present, widely diverging projections exist in parallel which would require completely different actions by politics, business and individuals. The scope of these projections is similar to that of the World Energy Outlook by the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, no assumptions or projections regarding the oil price are made. In this paper a scenario for the possible global oil supply is derived by aggregating projections for ten world regions. However, the scenario results presented in this paper are very different to the scenarios presented by the IEA in their periodic editions of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) where continuing growth of oil supply and as a consequence a continuation of business as usual for decades to come is deemed possible. [Extractos: Executive Summary]

Escenarios; Oferta y abastecimiento; Petróleo; Proyecciones;