A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050: An analysis of the regional availability of biomass resources for export in relation to the underlying factors

Lewandowski, Iris
Faaij, André
Smeets, Edward

2004

90-393-3909-0

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There are many scenarios that project a further increase in the demand and use of modern biomass as a renewable (green or CO2 neutral) source of energy. Estimates of the bioenergy production potential in 2050 vary from 33 to 1135 EJy-1. Concerns arise to what extend the earth is capable of producing an additional supply of biomass without further increasing stresses on the environment or endangering the food supply. The highest potential comes from energy crops produced on degraded land and surplus agricultural land (0 to 998 EJy-1). Most existing studies use a top-down approach and exclude information from existing studies on agriculture and forestry. In this study a bottom-up analysis of the theoretical global bioenergy production potential is carried out based on the best available knowledge. Specific attention is paid to: the development of a methodology to calculate bioenergy production potentials.• the impact of underlying factors that determine the bioenergy production potential. the impact of sustainability criteria such as no deforestation, no competition for land between bioenergy production and food production and protection of biodiversity and nature conservation. identify gaps and weak spots in the knowledge base. The key elements that determine the bioenergy production potential are identified: population growth, per capita consumption of food, demand for wood, crop yields and the production efficiency in the animal production system (and the potential to increase yields through more intensive management systems), natural forest growth and wood production from plantations. Data and scenarios for these and other factors are taken from a variety of international sources (e.g. FAO, WB, IFPRI, IIASA, RIVM, UNPD, EFI). Ranges for the various factors that determine the bioenergy production potential are analysed. An Excel spreadsheet tool was used to analyse the impact. [Extracto, Abstract]

Bioenergía; Biomasa; Nivel mundial; Potenciales;