Savings from CAFE projections of the future oil savings from light vehicle fuel economy standards..

DeCicco, John M.
American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.

1992

CIENA
2317

This paper presents estimates of the effect of strengthened Corporate Average Fuel Economy(CAFE) standards on light duty vehicle oil consumption in the United States. Projections are made of the expected oil savings and reductions in carbon dioxide(CO2) and hydrocarbon(HC) emissions. Five CAFE standards scenarios, some of which correspond to recent legislative proposals, are considered, ranging from CAFE increases of 15 percent to 60 percent by 2001 with similar rates of improvement through 2010. The most critical underlying assumption is that of the baseline, that is, the extent of fuel economy improvement or decline in the absence of strengthened standards. Choice of a baseline is discussed; results are presented relative to a middle baseline of rated fuel economy frozen at the 1991 level and alternative baselines of rising and falling fuel economy. Light duty vehicles consumed an estimated 6.1 Mbd (million barrels per day ) of motor fuel in 1991. In the absence of new standards or other significant changes in policy, comsumption is projected to grow to 9.2 Mbd by 2005. For the scenario of a 40 percent CAFE increase by 2001, the mid-range projections are oil savings of 2.4 Mbd by 2005 and corresponding emissions reductions of 440 million tons per year of CO2 and 410,000 tons per year of HC. Assumption of a higher or lower baseline gives a +25 or -25 percent change in the projected savings. Similar results are provided for other scenarios and other years through 2010. Other factors affecting the achieved levels of fuel economy and overall fleet fuel consumption are also examined, including timing, CAFE credits, potencial rollbacks of standards, upper and lower bounds on a percentage increase standard, and uncertainties regarding light duty vehicle market shifts, growth in vehicle miles of travel (VMT), VMT rebound, and fuel economy shortfall. Compared to the baseline assumption, these factors have smaller effects on the projections, resulting in an overall uncertainty of +30 or -30 percent. In summary, strengthened CAFE standards would be an effective means of controlling future oil consumption by automobiles and light trucks in the United States..

Presenta gráfs., tbls.

ESTADOS UNIDOS; CONSUMO DE COMBUSTIBLES; VEHICULOS LIVIANOS; AHORRO DE COMBUSTIBLE; NORMAS; CONTROL DE EMISION DE GASES; ANHIDRIDO CARBONICO; METODOLOGIA; NORMAS CAFE; ESCENARIOS ENERGETICOS; PROYECCIONES; DATOS ESTADISTICOS; METODOLOGIA;