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CO2 emissions from developing countries : better understanding the role of energy in the long term. LBL.



Recent years have witnessed a growing recognition of the link between emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and changes in the global climate. Of all anthropogenic activities, energy production and use generate the single largest portion of these greenhouse gases. Although developing countries currently account for a small share of global carbon emissions, their contribution is increasing rapidly. Due to the rapid expansion of energy demand in these nations, the developing world's share in global modern energy use rose from 16 to 24 percent between 1970 and 1987. If the growth rates observed over the past 20 years persist, energy demand in developing nations will surpass that in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developing (OECD) early in the 21st century. Restraining the future growth of carbon dioxide emissions in the developing world entails a through understanding of present and future patterns of energy use in these regions. To address this need, the International Energy Studies Group at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories (LBL) initiated this study in collaboration with research groups in the developing world. The study seeks to examine the forces that galvanize the growth of energy use and carbon emissions, to assess the likely future levels of energy and CO2 in selected developing nations and to identify opportunities for restraining this growth. The purpose of this report is to provide the quantitative information needed to develop effective policy options, not to identify the options themselves. The results are being used by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change to determine the impact of changes in energy use and supply on carbon emissions and, ultimately, on the Earth's climate. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency supported this work. Individual studies were conducted for Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela in Latin America; China, India, Indonesia and South Korea in Asia; and Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Ghana in Africa. A combined study was carried out for the countries of the Gulf Coopetation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates). For each nation, the participating regional experts derived a set of reasonable assumptions about future activity levels from a thorough analysis of energy use patterns in 1985. Based on this information, the experts then developed high and low scenarios of energy use and carbon emissions for the year 2025. Although the same spread-sheet model was used for all of the country studies, the socio-economic and energy-related assumptions made in each case differ according to the unique conditions for each nation (See appendix A for a description of the methodology of the study)..

Presenta gráfs. y tbls. V.1 : Resumen. V.2: Argentina, Brasil, México y Venezuela. V.3: China, India, Indonesia y Corea del Sur. V.4: Gana, Sierra León, Nigeria y GCC

Ministerio de Ambiente y Energía. Secretaría de Planificación del Sub-Sector Energía - Centro de Información de Energía y Ambiente, CIENA

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