The low predictive power of simple Phillips curves in Chile

Pincheira Brown, Pablo
Rubio Hurtado, Hernán

2015-08

10
LC/G.2643-P

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This study uses some backward-looking versions of Phillips curves, estimated from both revised and real-time data, to explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that a variety of activity measures may make to the task of predicting inflation in Chile. The main results confirm the findings of the recent international literature: the predictive power of the activity measures considered here is episodic, unstable and of moderate size. This weak predictive contribution is robust to the use of final and real-time data.

PRONOSTICOS ECONOMICOS; MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS; EVALUACION; ECONOMIC CONDITIONS; INFLATION; ECONOMIC FORECASTS; ECONOMETRIC MODELS; EVALUATION; INFLACION; CONDICIONES ECONOMICAS;