Growth, instability and the convertibility crisis in Argentina

Fanelli, José María

2002-08

LC/G.2180-P

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Includes bibliography

The Argentine economy is currently going through the deepest and most prolonged recession of the postwar period: a devastating panorama that contrasts vividly with its significant growth in 1991-1998.In this article we will analyse the macroeconomic dimensions of the crisis which led to the abandonment of convertibility.Firstly,we will identify some structural weaknesses of the Argentine economy that are a source of macroeconomic instability.In particular,we will study the role of the imperfect access to international capital markets,the limited openness,the lack of financial depth and the nominal and policy rigidities,as well as the role of the errors in expectations and volatility. Secondly,we will examine the sequence of disturbances (shocks);in 1998-1999,concluding that the simultaneity of many of them aggravated their effects and that,under the convertibility régime,the economy was not prepared to face such consequences.Finally,we will briefly outline the policies that the country should apply in order to restore macroeconomic and financial stability.

ECONOMIC STABILIZATION; MACROECONOMICS; ECONOMIC RECESSION; CURRENCY CONVERTIBILITY; CAPITAL MARKETS; RECESION ECONOMICA; MERCADOS DE CAPITAL; MACROECONOMIA; CONVERTIBILIDAD DE LA MONEDA; ESTABILIZACION ECONOMICA;