REVIEW AND EVALUATION OF HISTORIC ELECTRICITY FORECASTING EXPERIENCE. (1960 - 1985)

Arun Sanghvi and Rovert Vernstrom with John Besant
Jones. The World Bank.

A/6/2/127/1624

Methodology.- Analysis of forecast accuracy.- The U.S. Experience.- Conclusions and directions for future research. Annexes. This study focuses on load forecasts as a source of planning uncertainty by identifying the nature and extent of forecast inaccuracy per se rather than by analysis of the causes of uncertainty, The study identifies a strong historic bias toward overestimation which cuts across sales forecasts for all regions, vintages, system sizes and economic circumstances .

Energía Eléctrica (EE 1121.1);