Energy for tomorrow : division 3 energy and the economy = Energie demain. Social and economic development and changes in different geographic areas related to various scenarios of energy price. World Energy Conference [14, 17-22 Sep. 1989, Montreal].

Curcio, Edgardo.

1989

CIENA
525

Over the last 15 years, two oil crises and the recent countershock have provides information about the relationships that link the price of oil to the main macroeconomic variables, to economic and energy policies and to the evolution of the social structures and the welfare of populations. In addition, history has taught us that these links are not stable: the extent and duration of the variation in price and its level, when they follow irregular patterns, alter the relations between values and between countries over a period of time. There are a number of factors which, when they converge, help to achieve a new type of balance. These comprise the measures enacted by governments with regard to economic and energy policies, the decisions taken by oil companies and, lastly, the behaviour of individual consumers in satisfying their requirements. The greater the effort when looking for a new type of balance, the greater the flexibility acquired by the system. The action taken by industrialized countries has proved satisfactory, whereas that taken by oil importing and exporting developing countries in this context has been in a lower key. The starting-point when analyzing the likely evolution (between 1989 and the year 2000) of the relations mentioned earlier consisted of two assumptions of the real price of oil over the period (cases A and B) which were considered to be the most realistic. With case A (moderate growth of the real price), the interaction between international trade, lower inflation rates, growth in GDP, employment trends and demand for energy has positive effects...Ver documento. THE EVENTS OF THE LAST TEN YEARS IN THE ENERGY WORLD, WITH THE SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF OIL FOLLOWED BY THE SUBSEQUENT SLUMP, HAVE LED TO INCREASING ATTENTION BEING FOCUSED ON THE RELATIONSHIPS THAT EXIST BETWEEN ENERGY MATTERS AND ECONOMIC FACTORS, BOTH MACRO AND MICRO. THE TWO OIL CRISES, IN 1973 AND 1979 RESPECTIVELY, HIGHLIGHTED VERY CLEARLY A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON THE TREND OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ON DOMESTIC PRICES, ON THE BALANCES OF PAYMENTS OF THE MAIN COUNTRIES AND, IN GENERAL, ON THE BEHAVIOUR OF TRHE END-CONSUMERS. THE CIRCUMSTANCES DESCRIBED THUNS FAR CAN VE ANALYZED IN A NUMBER OF WAYS. FIRST OF ALL, IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT THE PRICE OF ENERGY, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, THE RATE OF INFLATION, THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, INDUSTRIAL GROWTH AND EVEN THE BEHAVIOUR OF INDIVIDUAL CONSUMERS ARE CLOSELY RELATED. IN ATTEMPTING TO ANALYZE THE INFLUENCE OF THE PROCE OF ENERGY ON CHANGES IN THE SOCIOECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF VARIOUS GROUPS OF COUNTRIES IN THE PERIOD 1989-2000, TWO HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIOS HAVE BEEN BUILT UP, USING ECONOMETRIC MODELS, BASED ON TWO DIFFERENT OIL PRICE TRENDS. ABSTRACT.

Presenta tbls. y gráfs.

GENERAL; PRECIOS DEL PETROLEO; DESARROLLO ECONOMICO; DESARROLLO SOCIAL; IMPACTO ECONOMICO; PAISES DESARROLLADOS; PAISES IMPORTADORES DE PETROLEO; PAISES EXPORTADORES DE PETROLEO; ESCENARIOS ENERGETICOS;