Macroeconomy for development: countercyclical policies and production sector transformation

Ocampo, José Antonio

2014-01-02T18:45:40Z

LC/G.2498-P

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The argument that I will be making here is that the key to a well-designed macroeconomic policy for development is a mix of sound countercyclical policies and a proactive strategy for diversifying production structures. These two concepts are deeply rooted in eclac thinking. Countercyclical policies must withstand the challenges posed by abrupt external financing cycles and sharp fluctuations in commodity prices. Fiscal policy is of pivotal importance, but it must be coupled with equally countercyclical monetary and exchange-rate policies. In the light of the experience over the past decade, this policy mix seems to be achievable if intermediate exchange regimes are introduced alongside macroprudential policies, including regulation of capital flows. At the same time, the strategy used to spur the development of the production sector should foster innovative economic activities that generate domestic production linkages. The concept of innovation must be understood in a broad sense, but the critical test is its contribution to the accumulation of technological capabilities.

This article is based on a keynote lecture delivered at the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (eclac) in Santiago, Chile, on 12 April 2011 on the occasion of the tenth lecture in the Raúl Prebisch Memorial Lecture Series.

Includes bibliography

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES; INNOVATIONS; PRODUCTION DIVERSIFICATION; FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES; BALANCE OF PAYMENTS; MONETARY POLICY; ECONOMIC POLICY; FISCAL POLICY; MACROECONOMICS; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; INNOVACIONES; ESTRATEGIAS DEL DESARROLLO; DIVERSIFICACION DE LA PRODUCCION; TIPOS DE CAMBIO; BALANZA DE PAGOS; POLITICA FISCAL; POLITICA MONETARIA; POLITICA ECONOMICA; ANALISIS ECONOMICO; DESARROLLO ECONOMICO; MACROECONOMIA;